Explanations
Step 1: Interpretation
of the detected frequency-courses
The results obtained by this step have the meaning
of signals which indicate changes in the publication- process. These signal-informations
are scientific based however yet not verified assumptions about corresponding
changes in the reality.
Step 2: Correctness-checking
of the interpretations
Due to the complexity and diversity of the analysed
publication processes it is hardly possible to achieve full confirmation
of the interpretations.
However it is necessary to ascertain up to which degree
of probability the results of the frequence analyses are congruent with
the insights that were gained in the practice.
The probability that an assumption is right lies on
a scale between the extreme values 0
and 1. Value 1 will assigned
if the corresponding interpretation is a logical result of practi- cal
experience. Value 0 is assigned if the interpretation
is incompatible with the practical experiences.
For determining the degree of probability it is difficult
but necessary to find indicators of the realistic
situation . These indicators are needed as models for
comparative assessment of the results of frequence analyses. This requires
analysts with a profound knowledge about the essential facts which are
relevant for the assessment of the database analyses.
Step 3: Determination
of causes for those interpretations which have been confirmed.
The corroborated information that the publication
frequencies have changed in defined directions is significant for decisions
in the science policy and on similar fields. However this is yet
not sufficiently because it is necessary to determine the causes
for these changes.
Size and complexity of the research activities in
the various fields make it impossible to define these causes in their
totality, especially because the same causes also change continual.
Therefore it is an realistic objective to reveal such
essential facts which may have caused mainly the changes in the publication
frequencies.
Especially this last step requires the cooperation
with experts in those subject areas, which have a scientific connection
to the theme of the frequence analysis.