Observation and assessment of  international activities in research and development 
by means of  frequency analyses of the world-greatest bibliographic databases

 

5    How may results of database analyses be transformed into information
for the practical use?

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The database-analyses deliver a “information raw material” which must go through 
a multistage process of checking and assessment yet. Only after that the final results of this process are given to the end user interested in the information.

Steps of this process in chronological sequence:
 1    Interpretation of the detected frequency-courses;
 2   Correctness-checking of the interpretations.  The checkings be to identify the correct
      assumptions and to reject interpretations which cannot become confirmed with adequa- 
      te safety;
 3   Determination of causes for those interpretations which have been confirmed.

Explanations

Step 1:  Interpretation of the detected frequency-courses
The results obtained by this step have the meaning of signals which indicate changes in the publication- process. These signal-informations are scientific based however yet not verified assumptions about corresponding changes in the reality.

Step 2:  Correctness-checking of the interpretations
Due to the complexity and diversity of the analysed publication processes it is hardly possible to achieve full confirmation of the interpretations.
However it is necessary to ascertain up to which degree of probability the results of the frequence analyses are congruent with the insights that were gained in the practice.
The probability that an assumption is right lies on a scale between the extreme values 0 
and 1. Value 1 will assigned  if the corresponding interpretation is a logical result of practi- cal experience. Value 0 is assigned if the interpretation is incompatible with the practical experiences.
For determining the degree of probability it is difficult but necessary  to find indicators of the realistic situation .  These indicators are needed as models  for comparative assessment of the results of frequence analyses. This requires analysts with a profound knowledge about the essential facts which are relevant for the assessment of the database analyses.

Step 3:  Determination of causes for those interpretations which have been confirmed.
The corroborated information that the publication frequencies have changed in defined directions is significant for decisions in the science policy and on similar fields.  However this is yet not sufficiently because it is necessary  to determine the causes for these changes.
Size and complexity of the research activities in the various fields make it impossible  to define these causes in their totality, especially because the same causes also change continual.
Therefore it is an realistic objective to reveal such essential facts which may have caused mainly the changes in the publication frequencies.
Especially this last step requires the cooperation with experts in those subject areas, which have a scientific connection  to the theme of the frequence analysis.

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